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Summary
Global wheat markets are expected to remain under pressure well into the 2026–27 season. Record and near-record production, rising stocks, weak import demand from China, and a high stock-to-use ratio are likely to cap any meaningful price recovery. Even as production eases slightly next season, ample inventories will continue to weigh on prices.
Wheat Markets Remain Oversupplied
Wheat prices are facing sustained pressure in the current 2025–26 season due to sharply higher production estimates. This bearish tone is expected to extend into 2026–27, as global supply continues to exceed demand.
Wheat production in 2025–26 is now projected at 828–829 million tonnes, significantly higher than the 809 million tonnes forecast earlier this year. This jump has tilted the market further into surplus.
China Demand Weakness Adds to Bearish Sentiment
China continues to play a key role in shaping global wheat trade.
China’s domestic wheat crop is expected to remain large in 2026–27, assuming no major yield disruptions. This is likely to keep import demand subdued, as seen in 2025, when Chinese wheat imports fell nearly 70% year-on-year.
While China may return to limited US wheat purchases next season, overall demand is expected to remain flat, offering little support to prices.
Production May Dip, But Stocks Will Stay High
Production in 2026–27 is expected to decline modestly due to lower acreage and less favourable weather, but it will still end up as the second-highest on record.
Despite potential output declines in the EU, US, Russia, and Argentina, global wheat stocks will remain elevated. The stock-to-use ratio is forecast to stay above 30%, signalling limited upside potential for prices.
Any resolution of the Ukraine war could further weigh on prices by allowing a larger cultivated area in the Black Sea region.
Weather Boosts Output Across Major Regions in 2025–26
Weather conditions have been largely favourable across major wheat-growing regions this season, according to ING Think.
Regional highlights include:
- European Union: Production estimated at 142 million tonnes, a 10-year high due to higher acreage and yields
- Russia: Output revised up to 88.8 million tonnes, driven by stronger-than-expected yields in Siberia
- United States: Production projected at a 10-year high of 54 million tonnes, with exports up 23% on a weaker dollar
- India: Record wheat output estimated at 118 million tonnes, supported by higher acreage and yields
- Australia: Third-highest wheat harvest on record
- Argentina: Second-highest harvest, with yields exceeding expectations
Stocks Continue to Build
Stocks are expected to rise further in the current season.
Global wheat inventories are forecast to increase by 10 million tonnes to 271 million tonnes in 2025–26. The stock-to-use ratio is projected to edge above 33%, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Conclusion
Even if wheat production eases slightly in 2026–27, the market will remain weighed down by large inventories, weak import demand, and structurally high stock-to-use ratios. Any meaningful price recovery appears unlikely in the near term, unless unexpected weather disruptions significantly alter global supply balances.