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US wheat exports are staging a strong comeback in the 2025–26 marketing year, driven by competitive pricing and deeper engagement in Asian and African markets. Latest data show that US wheat shipments are up 18% year on year, even as Washington grapples with weaker soybean purchases from China.
According to US Wheat Associates, exports touched 20.12 million tonnes as of January 1, 2026, compared with 17.02 million tonnes in the same period last year. While shipments to Europe declined sharply by 42%, the US has made notable inroads across Asia and Africa.
Asia Emerges as a Key Growth Market
Indonesia has emerged as a standout buyer. US wheat shipments to the world’s largest wheat importer are close to one million tonnes this season, a 47% jump from last year and well above the five-year average of 0.5 million tonnes. Indonesia imports more than 12 million tonnes of wheat annually, largely from Australia, but also sources from Canada, Russia, and Brazil.
A key driver behind this surge is a memorandum of understanding signed in July between Indonesia’s flour milling association, APTINDO, and US Wheat Associates. Under the agreement, Indonesian millers committed to doubling annual purchases of US wheat to one million tonnes for each of the next five years.
The US has backed this commitment with increased trade servicing, including technical consultations, milling support, and regular trade missions to improve the performance of US wheat in Indonesian mills.
Expanding Footprint Across Asia
Beyond Indonesia, US wheat exports have shown strength in several Asian markets. The Philippines continues to be a major buyer, with shipments exceeding 2.3 million tonnes this year. South Korea’s imports have eased but remain substantial at over 1.6 million tonnes, while Japan has imported a similar volume, reinforcing its position as a key destination for US wheat.
Bangladesh, which did not import US wheat last year, has quietly taken in about 0.67 million tonnes this season. This development could attract attention from other South Asian buyers, including India.
China’s wheat imports from the US have also risen, though volumes remain modest at under 200,000 tonnes.
Africa Sees a Strong US Comeback
In Africa, Nigeria has emerged as a significant success story. US wheat shipments to the country have surged more than 200% to 1.22 million tonnes this season, largely due to competitive pricing. This marks a recovery in a market where US wheat’s share had fallen sharply from 91% in 2010–11 to just 5.1% in 2023–24.
US Wheat Associates attributes this rebound to close collaboration with large Nigerian flour millers, offering market insights, quality data, and technical support to meet the needs of the country’s expanding wheat-based food sector.
Competitiveness Is the Core Message
The broader takeaway from this season’s performance is clear. Price competitiveness, coupled with sustained market engagement and technical support, is helping US wheat regain lost ground globally. As competition intensifies, especially from Black Sea and Australian origins, staying competitive will remain the key to sustaining export momentum.