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Summary
As we enter 2025, major agricultural commodities including rice, sugar, tur, chickpeas, and cashews are showing bearish trends. However, this market environment presents an opportunity for traders to leverage data-driven predictive analysis powered by AI and ML to make more informed trading decisions. This article examines current market conditions across key commodities and explains how predictive analysis can help traders navigate these challenging markets.
Global Rice Market: Supply Pressures Mount
India's return to the global rice market marks a significant shift in supply dynamics. With the removal of export curbs and projections of record harvests reaching 120 million tonnes in the kharif season, global supply pressures are intensifying. The USDA's forecast of 139 million tonnes of Indian rice production further reinforces this outlook.
Thailand and Vietnam, which benefited during India's absence from the market, are also expecting production increases. Thailand's production is projected to reach 19.98 million tonnes, while Vietnam's output is expected to hit 26.5 million tonnes. Pakistan's anticipated production of 10 million tonnes adds to the supply-side pressure.
Sugar Market: Shifting Dynamics
Global sugar markets are experiencing a transformation. Current prices are hovering near three-month lows, with production expected to increase by 1.5% to 186.62 million tonnes in 2024-25. While consumption is projected to rise by 1.2% to 179.63 million tonnes, the global deficit forecast has been revised down to 2.51 million tonnes from 3.58 million tonnes.
Pulses: Supply Abundance Impacts Prices
The pigeon pea (tur) market is witnessing significant changes. India's kharif crop estimate of 3.5 million tonnes, coupled with declining global prices below $1,000 per tonne, indicates a bearish trend. Myanmar's current offer price of $960 per tonne to India reflects this market sentiment.
Desi chickpeas are facing similar pressure, with Canada's supply increasing threefold and Australia achieving its second-highest crop on record. Prices have consequently dropped below $700 per tonne, with competition intensifying among major producers.
Cashew Market: Reversal of Fortune
The cashew market, which saw record prices in 2024, is expected to cool in 2025. Favorable crop conditions in East Africa, India, Cambodia, and Vietnam are contributing to this outlook. Tanzania has already seen a dramatic 40% price drop, from $1.54 to $0.91 per kg since October.
The Role of Predictive Analysis
In this challenging market environment, predictive analysis emerges as a crucial tool for traders. Advanced analytics can:
- Process historical data on production, supply, exports, imports, and prices
- Generate actionable insights for timing market entry and exit
- Help traders identify optimal holding periods
- Factor in multiple market variables to forecast price trends
Conclusion
While 2025's commodity markets present challenges with their bearish outlook, they also offer opportunities for traders who embrace data-driven decision-making. Predictive analysis, powered by AI and ML, can help traders navigate these complex markets more effectively. By leveraging tools like Hectar's predictive analysis platform, traders can transform market challenges into opportunities for growth and profitability.
Stay tuned for our detailed analysis of Tanzania's raw cashew nuts market for December, which will showcase our predictive analysis capabilities in action.