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Summary
India’s kharif crop estimates for 2025 show record rice and corn output, while pulses and oilseeds decline. This cereal surplus is expected to pressure both global and domestic markets. Pulses and soybean markets remain largely unchanged, and strong rabi sowing may further influence supply trends in the coming months.
Kharif Crop estimates released by the Indian government indicate a record-breaking foodgrain harvest for 2025.
Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan confirmed that rice and corn will reach unprecedented levels this season.
Rice production is projected at 124.50 million tonnes, adding to the already abundant global stock of 543 million tonnes. With rice prices at multi-year lows and African markets facing dollar shortages, global rice prices are expected to remain subdued.
India’s corn output is also estimated to hit a historic 28.3 million tonnes, contributing to the global production estimate of 1,298 million tonnes. This surplus will continue to keep both international and Indian corn markets under pressure through mid-2026.
Pulses including pigeon pea, black matpe and mung bean show no major deviation from expectations.
Black matpe prices remain around $880 (Brazil) and $810 (Myanmar), while pigeon pea trades between $550 (Tanzania) and $740 (Myanmar), with Malawi and Mozambique below $600/tonne.
India’s mung bean crop is unlikely to influence global markets significantly.
Soybean output is lower due to farmers shifting acreage to corn. However, since soybean prices are already weak, the decline in production is expected to have minimal impact globally.
Rabi sowing has gathered strong momentum, rising 12% year-on-year as of November 21. Early kharif harvests, high soil moisture from October rains and decade-high reservoir levels are supporting a robust rabi planting season.
Conclusion
India’s kharif crop outlook reveals a clear split: record surpluses in rice and corn and weaker performance in pulses and oilseeds. While cereals will keep global prices under pressure, pulses and soybeans remain largely stable. With strong rabi sowing underway, India’s agricultural influence will continue shaping global supply and pricing into early 2026.