Global Pulse Markets: Bearish Start to 2025 Amid Supply Surge

Summary

The global pulse market has entered 2025 with a significant downward trend across all major varieties. Pigeon pea (tur) prices have seen the steepest decline of 15%, while other pulses show varying degrees of price reduction. This bearish trend is primarily driven by abundant supplies from major producing nations including Canada, Australia, Russia, and the US, coupled with India's upcoming winter harvest.

Market Dynamics and Price Trends

Pigeon Pea (Tur/Red Gram)

• Prices have dropped below $850/tonne
• Myanmar offering at $830 for February shipments
• India's summer harvest estimates up at 3.5 million tonnes (vs 3.41 million tonnes last year)

Black Matpe

Despite a 25% lower production estimate in India (1.2 million tonnes vs 1.6 million tonnes):

• Myanmar offering super quality at $965/tonne to India
• Pakistan receiving offers at $975/tonne
• Brazil reduced offers by $10 to $1,020/tonne

Desi Chickpea

Australian offers showing significant price pressure:

• $675/tonne to India (February-March)
• $700/tonne to Pakistan
• $695/tonne to Bangladesh
• $690/tonne to UAE

Kabuli Chickpea

Argentina's competitive entry is challenging Russian dominance:

• 7mm: $800/tonne (↓ $10)
• 8mm: $900/tonne (↓ $30)
• 9mm: $1,200/tonne (↓ $5)
• Russia offering 6-7mm at $670 to Pakistan
• Mexico's premium 12mm at $1,800/tonne to Turkey (↓ $50)

Lentils Market

Both green and red varieties experiencing 5-10% price drops:

Green Lentils:

• Russia: $975/tonne to Turkey (↓ 9%)
• Canada: $1,135/tonne to India, $1,150/tonne to Turkey

Red Lentils:

• Russia: $635/tonne to Pakistan (↓ 8%)
• Canada: $735/tonne to India and Sri Lanka
• Australia: $695/tonne to India, $720/tonne to Pakistan

Mung Beans and Yellow Peas

Mung Beans:

• Myanmar: $950/tonne to China
• Uzbekistan: $1,120/tonne to China (↓ $20)

Yellow Peas: Prices firmly below $500/tonne with Russia-Canada competition:

• Russia: $400/tonne to Pakistan, $395/tonne to India
• Canada: $385/tonne to China, $450/tonne to India

Market Outlook and Trading Strategy

The current bearish trend is expected to persist until there's more clarity on India's winter crop output. Traders are advised to adopt a cautious, hand-to-mouth approach at least until March, when the Indian government releases winter crop production estimates.

Key Factors to Watch:

1. India's upcoming winter harvest in the next 8-10 weeks
2. Global supply pressure from major producing nations
3. Competition dynamics between Russia and Canada in the yellow peas market
4. Impact of Argentina's entry in the Kabuli chickpea segment

Conclusion

The start of 2025 presents a challenging environment for pulse traders, with abundant global supplies putting downward pressure on prices across all varieties. The market is particularly watching India's winter crop development, which will be crucial in determining price trends for the coming months. While this presents challenges for sellers, it offers opportunities for strategic buying, especially for processors and importers who can benefit from the current price levels. Traders should stay alert to potential market reversals and maintain flexible positions to adapt to changing market conditions.