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Summary
Desi chickpeas prices have fallen below $700 per tonne in global markets, reflecting a bearish trend in India where domestic prices have declined below MSP levels in some regions. The market is closely watching for signals on whether India will extend its duty-free import regime for chickpeas, as it recently did for pigeon peas. With new crop arrivals imminent and substantial Australian imports already in Indian inventory, market dynamics suggest a potential shift in India's import policy.
Market Update
Desi chickpeas prices in the global market continued their downward trajectory this week, falling below the $700 per tonne mark. This decline mirrors the bearish trend observed in India, where prices in Indore have slipped to ₹66,000 per tonne ($757), with some regions reporting prices below the minimum support price (MSP) of ₹54,400.
The primary factor driving this price decline is the anticipated arrival of the new chickpeas crop, which is reportedly developing well. However, the final outlook remains contingent on weather conditions over the next few weeks, introducing an element of uncertainty into the market.
The Duty Question
Market speculation is centered around whether India will extend its duty-free import regime for chickpeas, similar to the recent extension granted for pigeon peas until March 31, 2026. However, the market fundamentals for these two pulses differ significantly – India faces a shortage of pigeon peas but maintains ample chickpeas stocks, including over one million tonnes imported from Australia during the October-January period.
In the contract market, only the April-May deliveries from Australia to India maintained prices above $700, at $705 this week, though this represents a $10 decrease from last week. For March-April contracts, Australia has reduced its offer price to $690 for both India and Bangladesh, while Nepal is being quoted at $730. Pakistan and UAE are being offered the same contracts at $700.
Adding to market pressure, Russia has entered the supply picture, offering chickpeas to Pakistan at $700 for March-April delivery.
Industry Insights
Trade sources suggest that the Indian government is likely to reimpose import duties on chickpeas, though the percentage remains uncertain. The recent price cuts of $5-15 indicate that some market participants are looking to secure deals before any potential end to the duty-free regime.
Interestingly, Australian growers appear relatively unconcerned about potential duty reimposition, having secured favorable prices thus far this season.
At a recent industry roundtable conference, traders estimated Indian chickpeas production at 9.45 million tonnes (MT), representing a modest increase of 0.05 MT from the previous year. Imports for 2025 are projected at 0.75 MT, with ending stocks forecast at 0.55 MT – nearly five times higher than the 0.11 MT recorded this year.
Conclusion
The global desi chickpeas market is at a critical juncture as prices continue to decline amid uncertainty over India's import policy. With India being a pivotal player in the global pulses trade, any decision on import duties will have far-reaching implications for exporters and importers alike. Market participants should closely monitor India's policy signals, weather patterns affecting the new crop, and inventory levels as these factors will shape price trends in the coming months. For traders and importers, the current price dip may present strategic buying opportunities, especially if timed ahead of any potential policy changes in India.