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Summary
Brazil’s agribusiness sector is expected to remain resilient in 2026, even as farmers face high interest rates, debt overhangs and cash flow stress. Ongoing global trade frictions and shifting sourcing patterns are likely to work in Brazil’s favour, strengthening its position across grains, oilseeds and animal protein exports.
Trade Tensions Tilt the Balance Toward Brazil
According to RaboResearch, global trade tensions will continue to shape Brazil’s agribusiness outlook this year. While election-year volatility and geopolitical uncertainty pose risks, trade disruptions involving major exporters are opening opportunities for Brazil.
RaboResearch expects soybean planting in Brazil to rise by around 2 per cent, despite financial stress among grain farmers. Strong global demand and competitive pricing are keeping Brazil attractive as an origin.
Andy Duff, Head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness for South America, says trade tensions remain a key factor. China’s decision to impose a quota of 1.1 million tonnes on Brazilian beef, with steep tariffs beyond that level, could restrict flows later in the year. However, pressure from the US on its trading partners may still divert demand toward Brazilian soybeans, cotton and animal protein.
Animal Protein Exports Gain Momentum
Brazil is well placed to benefit in animal protein markets. Delays by China in approving US pork plants and provisional anti-dumping tariffs on EU pork have opened doors for Brazilian pork exports.
Mexico is also shifting away from US chicken, boosting Brazilian poultry exports by about 70 per cent. That said, Brazil will need to defend its market share in Asia if US competitiveness rebounds later in the year.
Low grain and oilseed prices are expected to keep global feed costs subdued, giving Brazilian poultry and pork producers a clear cost advantage. Additional corn ethanol production will add more high-protein feed ingredients to the market, while higher biodiesel blending will support increased soybean crushing.
Domestic Challenges Remain
Brazil heads into elections this year, bringing uncertainty on fiscal policy. RaboResearch macro analysts warn that pressure to increase social spending, wages and public investment could stall fiscal reforms and draw attention back to Brazil’s rising debt-to-GDP ratio.
Grain and oilseed farmers remain under financial strain due to average margins and high interest rates, potentially limiting spending on crop inputs. Sugarcane farmers may also face pressure if sugar and ethanol prices remain weak in 2026.
Conclusion
Despite domestic headwinds, Brazil retains a strong competitive edge in global agribusiness. Trade frictions, low feed costs and expanding biofuel-linked demand are likely to keep Brazilian exports competitive through 2026, particularly in animal protein. As long as global trade tensions persist, Brazil stands to remain a key beneficiary.